Currents 055: Paul Goble on Putin’s Strategic Mistakes

Continuing his series of expert interviews on the unfolding situation in Ukraine, Jim talks with Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia. They discuss Putin’s view of Russia as neglected & ignored, Russians’ difficulty making ethnic distinctions between Ukrainian & Russians, Putin’s unintentional unification of Ukraine & NATO, what Putin & most analysts got wrong about the military balance, Putin’s misplaced faith in superior firepower, the ethnic makeup of the Russian military, why the backlash from the West was stronger than Putin expected, the West’s unprecedented non-kinetic response to the invasion, effects & non-effects of the Western sanction regime, Russia’s infosphere & increasingly closed internet, why Russian anti-war sentiment will increase, challenging bets against a continued Ukrainian resistance, Ukrainian resistance to the Soviet Red Army in 1945-1955, high effectiveness of low-tech resistance, Putin’s coming claim of victory & why it would be Pyrrhic, what Putin would do in reaction to violence against him, the likelihood that NATO’s increased coherence will continue, why China will probably not move on Taiwan in the near term, and much more.

• Episode Transcript
• Window on Eurasia (Paul’s blog)
• “Putin’s Strategic Mistakes in Ukraine have Devastating Consequences for Russia, Pastukhov Says,” by Paul Goble
• JRS Currents 054: Samo Burja on the Russia-Ukraine War
• JRS Currents 052: John Robb on War in Ukraine

Paul Goble, a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious issues in Eurasia for the US government and US international broadcasting, currently blogs at Windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com. Prior to retiring from the US government in 2004, he worked in the intelligence community, the State Department and US international broadcasting. Since then, he has taught in Estonia at the University of Tartu and Audentes University in Tallinn, at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku, and the Institute of World Politics in Washington. The editor of eight volumes on ethnic and religious issues, he is the author of more than 100 articles and chapters and more than 1,000 op-eds in US and European publications. He has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting the restoration of Baltic independence. He lives in Staunton, Virginia, and can be reached at paul.goble@gmail.com.